Academy Award Predictions
January 30th, 2006 | by Scott |
(Edited to add: Predictions in bold were correct)
I fancy myself somewhat of an amateur Oscar historian. Back about 10 years or so ago I sat out to watch every best picture and best actor winner. I was able to do that except for the first two best actor films. Maybe someday they will be released on video.
If you name a year I can tell you who won best picture or actor for that year The only reason I haven’t done the same with best actress winners is because I met Tracy and got a life. But I still have seen every major nominee for the last several years. Here are my predictions for the noms coming out tomorrow morning:
Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line
Note–I maintain that the Academy will go with one non-political film. Hence, Walk the Line. If not, expect Munich to creep in here.
Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow)
Note: I’m expecting Howard to knock out Russell Crowe for the fifth slot, although Ralph Fiennes is a contender as well.
Best Actress
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Keira Knightly (Pride and Prejudice)
Note: Does the Academy know how to not nominate Judi Dench? Doesn’t matter. It’s a two horse race here between Huffman and Witherspoon.
Best Director
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
George Clooney (Good Night and Good Luck)
Bennett Miller (Capote)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
Note: Mangold is the odd man out here. But Walk the Line isn’t a best pic contender and the Academy rarely lines up 5 for 5 in Best Picture and Best Director
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
George Clooney (Syriana)
Jake Gyllenhall (Brokeback Mountain)
Don Cheadle (Crash)
Note: I’m a huge Clooney fan. I’m looking for a big night for him. Also will be great to see Giamatti nominated after being robbed two years in a row.
Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Rachel Weisz (Constant Gardener)
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale)
Note: I really have no clue, although I know that Sandra Bullock deserves a nomination for her sterling performance in the best movie of the year, Crash.
Ok, I am a geek. You got any thoughts before the noms tomorrow?
3 Responses to “Academy Award Predictions”
By Jason Bybee on Jan 31, 2006 | Reply
You’re a dork.
By Leslie (friend of Ashley Freeman) on Jan 31, 2006 | Reply
Way to call it! Most predictions were right on (do you have an “in” with Hollywood?)
By scott on Jan 31, 2006 | Reply
No in–just lucky.