Oscar Predictions
March 1st, 2006 | by Scott |
This years races are extremely difficult to predict. While I have seen the majority of nominees, there are a couple of films that have escaped my opportunity to view them. (I am extremely perturbed at Waco’s failure to screen Capote.)
Regardless of what anyone might say, there are no sure things this year. Here are my best guesses, followed by my preference:
Best Actor
Will Win–Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote.
Should Win–This vote might change when I get to see Capote. But for now, my favorite performance of the year is Terrence Howard’s searing portrayal in Hustle and Flow.
Best Actress
Will Win–Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line
Should Win–I have loved Felicity Huffman since her days on Sports Night but nobody brings the same pathos to a role this year than Charlize Theron did to North Country. Alas, she just won a couple of years back.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win–George Clooney for Syriana
Should Win–Tremendous line-up of nominees. But Matt Dillon is playing a grown-up version of the character he has always played; Paul Giamatti is being nominated after being robbed the previous two years; Jake Gyllenhaal was not the heart of his movie and William Hurt should not have been nominated in the first place. Therefore, Clooney should take the statue.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win–Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain
Should Win–No one was more intrinsic to their movie than Amy Adams was to Junebug. Every scene she is in belongs solely to her. She can simultaneously elicit laughs and sympathy. The movie is an interminable bore without her presence.
Best Picture
Will Win–Brokeback Mountain
Should Win–Crash. I am holding out hopes that Crash plays the Shakespeare in Love role to Brokeback’s Schindler’s List. Five years from now, when we are out from under the news-worthiness of Brokeback there will be no debate that Crash is the superior film. I saw it months ago and it still resonates with me. This could be the biggest shocker of the night.
Best Director
Will Win–Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
Should Win–Paul Haggis for Crash. See Above.
Another race I am looking forward to is best song. I love all of the nominees but Dolly Parton’s Travelin’ Thru is one of the best redemption themed songs I’ve heard in a while.
What are your thoughts?
7 Responses to “Oscar Predictions”
By Jason Bybee on Mar 1, 2006 | Reply
I’ve seen fewer of this year’s nominees than in years past, so my take is a bit unqualified. But I loved Crash. A poignant reflection on race relations and prejudice. Haunts me still, even months later. I love a movie with a message, and I’d love to see this excellent film garner a few major accolades, even Best Picture.
Also, Travelin’ Thru is the free download of the week at the iTunes Music Store. Check it out.
By scott on Mar 1, 2006 | Reply
Already got it. Had it for a while now off of Rhapsody. Too hooked on Rhapsody to switch to Itunes.
By Kevin Bussey on Mar 2, 2006 | Reply
I’m still upset that Dumb and Dumber didn’t win an Oscar!
By Lane Widick on Mar 2, 2006 | Reply
The DVD sales of the movie Crash has been astronomical compared to how critics initially thought it would do. This may help its cause a slight bit. I agree that it is probably the most powerful movie I’ve ever seen.
By Jason Bybee on Mar 2, 2006 | Reply
iTunes is awesome, man. Don’t know how you Rhapsody guys live without it.
I must say, I’m a little surprised at the critical attention Reese Witherspoon has received for her role in “Walk the Line”. You know I’m a Cash afficianado, but I wasn’t as impressed with her portrayal of June Carter as I was with Joaquain Phoenix’s Man in Black. I’ve heard the same buzz, that she’ll likely win. I can’t pinpoint it exactly, but I recall being a bit underwhelmed by Witherspoon’s performance. Oh well…
By scott on Mar 2, 2006 | Reply
Do you get unlimited listening on your computer with Itunes? Or just snippets of songs? On Rhapsody there is no limit to the number of songs I can listen to or download onto my computer.
I loved Reese’s portrayal. I thought she brought that same winsome quality that grabbed ahold of Cash. But I still lean toward Theron although she has no shot. I hope to see Huffman before Sunday night.
By Jeff on Mar 3, 2006 | Reply
Of course you get unlimited listening and downloads - you pay only for songs you download (they’re all $0.99 unless you download an entire album, where they drop lower) - and they belong to you!!. A little freeware app removed the DRM and I’ve got high-quality MP4 files that I can do whatever I want to with!
I’ve tried all the other subscription services and, as much as it pains me as an anti-Apple guy to say so, iTunes is the best there is.