OscarThis years races are extremely difficult to predict. While I have seen the majority of nominees, there are a couple of films that have escaped my opportunity to view them. (I am extremely perturbed at Waco’s failure to screen Capote.)
Regardless of what anyone might say, there are no sure things this year. Here are my best guesses, followed by my preference:

Best Actor
Will Win–Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote.
Should Win–This vote might change when I get to see Capote. But for now, my favorite performance of the year is Terrence Howard’s searing portrayal in Hustle and Flow.

Best Actress
Will Win–Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line
Should Win–I have loved Felicity Huffman since her days on Sports Night but nobody brings the same pathos to a role this year than Charlize Theron did to North Country. Alas, she just won a couple of years back.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win–George Clooney for Syriana
Should Win–Tremendous line-up of nominees. But Matt Dillon is playing a grown-up version of the character he has always played; Paul Giamatti is being nominated after being robbed the previous two years; Jake Gyllenhaal was not the heart of his movie and William Hurt should not have been nominated in the first place. Therefore, Clooney should take the statue.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win–Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain
Should Win–No one was more intrinsic to their movie than Amy Adams was to Junebug. Every scene she is in belongs solely to her. She can simultaneously elicit laughs and sympathy. The movie is an interminable bore without her presence.

Best Picture
Will Win–Brokeback Mountain
Should Win–Crash. I am holding out hopes that Crash plays the Shakespeare in Love role to Brokeback’s Schindler’s List. Five years from now, when we are out from under the news-worthiness of Brokeback there will be no debate that Crash is the superior film. I saw it months ago and it still resonates with me. This could be the biggest shocker of the night.

Best Director
Will Win–Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
Should Win–Paul Haggis for Crash. See Above.

Another race I am looking forward to is best song. I love all of the nominees but Dolly Parton’s Travelin’ Thru is one of the best redemption themed songs I’ve heard in a while.

What are your thoughts?