Call me a nerd, but I am an Academy Award buff. I’ve seen every best picture and actor winner. Over the last 10 years or so I’ve seen every best picture nominated film and 90% of the acting nominees.
Tomorrow morning the Academy will announce their nominations for the 79th Academy Awards. Here is the way I’m predicting it will go:

Best Picture–There are three absolute locks in this category. One almost lock. And one movie with a head of steam coming into the announcement.
Babel–Lock
Dreamgirls–Lock
The Departed–Lock
The Queen–Almost a lock
Little Miss Sunshine–Gaining ground fast and at this point is a dark horse to win it all.

Analysis–The Queen seems to have slowed a bit, although it is a fantastic film and I think it still will make it through. People are beginning to acknowledge Sunshine for being one of the best movies of the year and I think it gets through. There are still a few movies that are hanging around that could pull a stunner. They are:
–Children of Men: The problem with this film is that it began to get the rave reviews and the push too late in the game. If the nominations were a month from now, it’s chances would be better.
–United 93: Critics love it, naming it the best picture in 9 different circles. But, divorced from the emotions of those events, it’s not a great film.
–Letters from Iwo Jima: The Academy loves Clint Eastwood. But this time I think he has to settle for just a Director nod.

Best Actor–This is shaping up to be a great year for African American actors. As it shapes up right now, they could pull out three of the four trophies this year. And after the two locks this field gets rather shaky. Here is my best guess:
Forest Whitaker in Last King of Scotland–Lock
Will Smith in Pursuit of Happyness–Lock
Peter O’Toole in Venus–Oft nominated but never a winner. And he won’t win this year. But look for him to haul in #8.
Leonardo DiCaprio–Two stellar performances. The question is which movie garners the nom. I think it will be for Blood Diamond since his role in The Departed is being pushed for supporting. If so, I think Leo will be twice rewarded this year.
Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat–Golden Globe win proves that this performance is being taken seriously. It’s that good.
Note–Look for Ryan Gosling to sneak in here if Leo splits his vote.

Best Actress–For the first time in years this category has more weight than the Actor field.
Helen Mirren in The Queen–Lock. She has won EVERY award for her incredible performance. Time to start dreading the Oscar backlash.
Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada–Lock, but isn’t she always?
Judi Dench in Notes On a Scandal–Lock, but isn’t she always?
Kate Winslet in Little Children–Her fifth! nomination. The next, or current, Meryl Streep.
Penelope Cruz in Volver–I can’t believe I’m writing this.

Supporting Actor–Great performances, with one clear front-runner. And that is:
Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls–Eddie was a revelation in this film. Tremendous.
Djimon Honsou in Blood Diamond–This is one of my favorite performances of the year. His love for his son will preach.
Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine–A career topping performance.
Jackie Earl Haley in Little Children–Kelly Leak is back.
Brad Pitt in Babel–I’m going for a long shot here. It’s Pitt’s time knocking out contenders like Nicholson and Wahlberg.

Supporting Actress–I’m reaching here because I haven’t seen as many films with legitimate contenders in this field. I’ll start with what I think should happen:
Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls–WOW. This is a lock. And with Whitaker and Murphy this is three African American frontrunners. A first.
Abigail Breslin in Little Miss Sunshine–Give her the nod. To upstage Steve Carrell, Greg Kinnear and Toni Collette takes some chops.
Cate Blanchett in Notes On a Scandal
Adriana Barraza or Rinko Kikuchi in Babel–But not both.
Emma Thompson in Stranger Than Fiction–I’m afraid this becomes a rubber stamp here rather than giving it to who truly earned a nom: Emily Blunt in The Devil Wears Prada

Best Director–I am hoping against hope that Eastwood in not nominated here, because it is LONG past time that Scorcese is honored. He is the greatest living director to have not won. He’s way past due.
Martin Scorcese for The Departed
Bill Condon for Dreamgirls
Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel
Clint Eastwood for Letters From Iwo Jima
Steven Frears for The Queen
Note: We could see the Academy acknowledge United 93 here with a nod for Paul Greengrass

OK, that’s it. I felt more confident in my predictions last year but it will be interesting to see. I am now heading to some other prediction sites to see how I compare to the “experts.”
Any thoughts?

Update

I only got 25 out of 30. The only one I got completely was Best Actress. Kinda disappointing. But I did name all the ones in my potential spoilers so that means no true shocks except Dreamgirls getting shut out of best picture. When I saw that Condon was not nominated for Director I sensed it was coming. But I thought it was a lock. I must make a mental note to myself: never underestimate the Academy’s love for Clint Eastwood.
It’s a wide open field. Should be interesting.