Predicting the Oscar Nominations
January 22nd, 2007 | by Scott |Call me a nerd, but I am an Academy Award buff. I’ve seen every best picture and actor winner. Over the last 10 years or so I’ve seen every best picture nominated film and 90% of the acting nominees.
Tomorrow morning the Academy will announce their nominations for the 79th Academy Awards. Here is the way I’m predicting it will go:
Best Picture–There are three absolute locks in this category. One almost lock. And one movie with a head of steam coming into the announcement.
Babel–Lock
Dreamgirls–Lock
The Departed–Lock
The Queen–Almost a lock
Little Miss Sunshine–Gaining ground fast and at this point is a dark horse to win it all.
Analysis–The Queen seems to have slowed a bit, although it is a fantastic film and I think it still will make it through. People are beginning to acknowledge Sunshine for being one of the best movies of the year and I think it gets through. There are still a few movies that are hanging around that could pull a stunner. They are:
–Children of Men: The problem with this film is that it began to get the rave reviews and the push too late in the game. If the nominations were a month from now, it’s chances would be better.
–United 93: Critics love it, naming it the best picture in 9 different circles. But, divorced from the emotions of those events, it’s not a great film.
–Letters from Iwo Jima: The Academy loves Clint Eastwood. But this time I think he has to settle for just a Director nod.
Best Actor–This is shaping up to be a great year for African American actors. As it shapes up right now, they could pull out three of the four trophies this year. And after the two locks this field gets rather shaky. Here is my best guess:
Forest Whitaker in Last King of Scotland–Lock
Will Smith in Pursuit of Happyness–Lock
Peter O’Toole in Venus–Oft nominated but never a winner. And he won’t win this year. But look for him to haul in #8.
Leonardo DiCaprio–Two stellar performances. The question is which movie garners the nom. I think it will be for Blood Diamond since his role in The Departed is being pushed for supporting. If so, I think Leo will be twice rewarded this year.
Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat–Golden Globe win proves that this performance is being taken seriously. It’s that good.
Note–Look for Ryan Gosling to sneak in here if Leo splits his vote.
Best Actress–For the first time in years this category has more weight than the Actor field.
Helen Mirren in The Queen–Lock. She has won EVERY award for her incredible performance. Time to start dreading the Oscar backlash.
Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada–Lock, but isn’t she always?
Judi Dench in Notes On a Scandal–Lock, but isn’t she always?
Kate Winslet in Little Children–Her fifth! nomination. The next, or current, Meryl Streep.
Penelope Cruz in Volver–I can’t believe I’m writing this.
Supporting Actor–Great performances, with one clear front-runner. And that is:
Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls–Eddie was a revelation in this film. Tremendous.
Djimon Honsou in Blood Diamond–This is one of my favorite performances of the year. His love for his son will preach.
Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine–A career topping performance.
Jackie Earl Haley in Little Children–Kelly Leak is back.
Brad Pitt in Babel–I’m going for a long shot here. It’s Pitt’s time knocking out contenders like Nicholson and Wahlberg.
Supporting Actress–I’m reaching here because I haven’t seen as many films with legitimate contenders in this field. I’ll start with what I think should happen:
Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls–WOW. This is a lock. And with Whitaker and Murphy this is three African American frontrunners. A first.
Abigail Breslin in Little Miss Sunshine–Give her the nod. To upstage Steve Carrell, Greg Kinnear and Toni Collette takes some chops.
Cate Blanchett in Notes On a Scandal
Adriana Barraza or Rinko Kikuchi in Babel–But not both.
Emma Thompson in Stranger Than Fiction–I’m afraid this becomes a rubber stamp here rather than giving it to who truly earned a nom: Emily Blunt in The Devil Wears Prada
Best Director–I am hoping against hope that Eastwood in not nominated here, because it is LONG past time that Scorcese is honored. He is the greatest living director to have not won. He’s way past due.
Martin Scorcese for The Departed
Bill Condon for Dreamgirls
Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel
Clint Eastwood for Letters From Iwo Jima
Steven Frears for The Queen
Note: We could see the Academy acknowledge United 93 here with a nod for Paul Greengrass
OK, that’s it. I felt more confident in my predictions last year but it will be interesting to see. I am now heading to some other prediction sites to see how I compare to the “experts.”
Any thoughts?
Update
I only got 25 out of 30. The only one I got completely was Best Actress. Kinda disappointing. But I did name all the ones in my potential spoilers so that means no true shocks except Dreamgirls getting shut out of best picture. When I saw that Condon was not nominated for Director I sensed it was coming. But I thought it was a lock. I must make a mental note to myself: never underestimate the Academy’s love for Clint Eastwood.
It’s a wide open field. Should be interesting.
21 Responses to “Predicting the Oscar Nominations”
By greg on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
you know, I’ve seen “Borat” on television at various times, Leno and/or Letterman, other interviews, etc. I’ve yet to see anything he did/said that made me laugh. He just wasn’t funny to me, and I thought that’s what he was all about - being funny. Am I missing something?
By Scott on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
It’s a love/hate performance/character, that’s for sure. Whether or not you like the movie you have to look at the acting ability required to stay in that character–I dub it post-method.
By JAW on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
Hey, you’re good. Or at least I agree with you on all counts…couldn’t have said it better myself. We’ll see how wrong (or right) we are tomorrow!
By Scott on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
Thanks, James.
I seem to be with the consensus on picture and actress.
There is minor discrepancies in the other categories.
It’ll be interesting.
By jasonk on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
You’re a nerd.
Hey, you asked.
What will happen if Hudson wins an Oscar, after LOSING on American Idol? At some point, there has to be some respect shown to this program that has discovered so many award winners–Clarkson, Underwood, now Hudson. Yet very few of them ever thank AI for giving them a shot at fame. Interesting.
I don’t watch the Hollywood self-love fests very often at all, but I would be pulling for Will Smith. I like his work anyway, but playing this role was really special for me, since I’m in the same industry he played in the film, and was familiar with the story before it came out. Go Will.
By Scott on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
40 million people watching AI isn’t respect?
By jasonk on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
I don’t mean respect from the viewers. Obviously the public loves it, eats it up.
I am talking about respect from an industry standpoint. Until Kelly Clarkson won a Grammy, the industry as a whole hoped they could just ignore her until she went away. Problem is, she was good. And she sold records. And now she is winning awards, lending greater legitimacy to this talent show.
You’re still a nerd :^)
By Scott on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
I was blown away by Hudson’s performance. She deserves a statuette.
By Richie on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
I used to be nerdy like you (well I still am but just not with movies). Our son was born this year and our movie watching has hit the brakes. We saw Dreamgirls this past weekend. Hudson was awesome. Though, why is she being pushed into supporting? She has more screen time (I think) than Beyonce? Who, if anyone, is the female lead in that movie? Foxx was clearly the male lead, but I would have put Hudson as the female lead. (Of course, her Oscar chances are better in the supporting role.) I must be the only person in America who wasn’t as thrilled with Eddie Murphy. good but not great in my opinion.
Can’t wait for rentals to come out! Liked Sunshine, but not sure it’ll get the nod.
By Jeff on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
I love movies and watch more than my share, but don’t really follow the Oscar buzz. It seems a bit like driving the latest year model cars and getting all worked up about which engineers designed which components on which vehicles. Don’t see the point.
Movies I enjoyed this year: Taladega Nights (funniest comedy in a decade), Blood Diamond, MI 3 (was that this year?), Casino Royale…
By Jeff on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
…oh, and Children of Men.
By Scott on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
Richie, kids kill movie going. I go to the movies during about a two month period each year–Oscar season.
Movie studios can push their actors in whichever category that they want. It’s not uncommon for someone with a large amount of screen time to be pushed in the lesser category. And take Hudson’s character and her being out of the plot movement for a decent hunk of the movie, I think it’s the right place for her.
Sunshine is looking more and more like a done deal.
By Scott on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
Jeff, to each his own.
And aren’t you trying to watch all the best picture winners?
Children of Men was really good, far superior to the book.
By Jeff on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
I’m not really trying to get through them. I, at one point in time, ran a catalog of the ones I’d watched. I am interested in hearing what the really good movies are - just not very interested in the internal machinations of Hollywood (vis a vis actors, directors, producers, et al).
Thx re:CoM book. I read Death in Holy Orders by P. D. James and despite my intentions, did not care for it. Thought this book might be different (might remind me of Oryx & Crake, for example), but I’ll steer clear.
By Scott on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
Yeah, Children of Men was not that great. No Oryx and Crake.
By richie on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
Yeah, I knew the studios could lobby and submit actors for whichever category they wanted. But I still thought she the female lead over Beyonce. Regardless, she did a great job and deserved the Globe. I haven’t seen your other predictions for that category other than the girl from Sunshine to know if I think she’ll grab the Oscar. but there’s a lot of buzz!
By Jason Bybee on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
I saw The Departed and I honestly don’t see what the fuss is about. I guess it’s about the residue of violence or something…but it seemed to simply glorify violence like every other Scorsese pic. Is that really something worth honoring?
By terri on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
I saw Little Miss Sunshine last night… tough language but it IS rated R. I couldn’t decide if it was funny or sad.
By Garth Hope on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
I think this is a first for me, but I am proud of myself.
I have not seen a single movie that you have listed!
By Amy on Jan 22, 2007 | Reply
Me either, Garth.
By RC of strangeculture on Jan 23, 2007 | Reply
I’m not sure what I think about Cohen forever being regarded as an Oscar Nominee…
we’ll see how it’s called this AM.
Also I think it’s interesting you say only one supporting actress will pick up the supporting nod and toss Emma Thompson in with the bunch…I think Blunt has a better chance then her.
Intersting list.
–RC of strangeculture.blogspot.com