Scott Freeman

Predicting the Oscars

Tomorrow is a big day for us Academy nerds. At 6:30 central the nominees for the 80th presentation of the Academy Awards.

Although it is a wide open field and there are no clear cut favorites here is my annual prediction of the nominees:

Best Picture–I disagree with some of the prognosticators. I believe that Juno is one of the three locks in this category. It’s momentum, broad appeal and “Little Miss Sunshine” vibe get it the more pedestrian appeal that usually gets one slot. That leaves 3-5 pictures battling for the final two spots. I see it shaking out like this:
No Country For Old Men–Lock
There Will Be Blood–Lock
Juno–Lock
So, what are the other two? Sweeney Todd is out and will have to settle for a Depp nom. So is American Gangsters. To me that leaves Atonement, Michael Clayton, Into the Wild and Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Oscar loves actors who direct so Wild can’t be counted out. My hope is that Oscar gives the nod to Atonement and Michael Clayton but I don’t think it happens that way.
Atonement
Diving Bell and the Butterfly
But I feel less confident of that than I have in my predictions in several years. If the hated Giants can beat the Pack than anything can happen.

Best Actor–This could be a very interesting race with some strong performances all the way. It’s a lilly-white crew this time around which could spring a slot open for Denzel’s American Gangster Role. Look for Lewis, Clooney, Depp and Mortenson (I’ll never look at him the same way again) to rise to the top and the last slot to be more open.
George Clooney–Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp–Sweeney Todd
Viggo Mortenson–Eastern Promises
Daniel Day Lewis–There Will Be Blood
I like James McAvoy for his role in Atonement. But I’m betting a second nomination for Ryan Gosling in Lars and the Real Girl.

Best Actress–I’m hoping that Amy Adams can maintain some of her early momentum but it’s becoming increasingly doubtful. Here is what we can likely expect.
Marion Cotillard–La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie–A Mighty Heart
Julie Christie–Away From Her
Ellen Page–Juno
I’m holding out for Adams here but if Atonement breaks through then Keira Knightley takes this spot. Amy Adams–Enchanted.

Best Supporting Actor–There are some real no brainers in this list.
Javier Bardem–No Country For Old Men (Yikes!)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman–Charlie Wilson’s War
Casey Affleck–Jesse James (The only Affleck ever likely to get an acting nomination)
Hal Holbrook–Into the Wild (Oscar loves to acknowledge lifetime achievement. Holbrook and Christies noms this year are case in point.)
In a perfect world Michael Cera gets the last slot but look for Michael Clayton’s Tom Wilkinson to cruise in here.

Best Supporting Actress–This is Cate Blanchett’s statuette to lose.
Cate Blanchett–I’m Not There
Amy Ryan–Gone Baby Gone
Saiorse Ronan–Atonement
Ruby Dee–American Gangster
Tilda Swinton–Michael Clayton

Best Director
Coens–No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson–There Will Be Blood
Julian Schnabel–The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
Joe Wright–Atonement
Sean Penn–Into The Wild

Any Thoughts?

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