Scott Freeman

Oscar Predictions

Anyone who says that they know how Sunday night’s ceremony is going to go is incredibly delusional. Yes, there are front-runners in each category but there are also possibilities in every race for tremendous upsets. This is one of those years where there are so many award worthy films that we might see the Academy attempt to spread the wealth as much as possible.
In years past I would try to do a Will Win/Should Win breakdown of the major nominees. However, in most of the major categories, the majority of the nominees could make a credible argument for their worthiness. With a few exceptions. At this point the only differences in nominees that I would have given would be Phillip Seymour Hoffman over Viggo Mortenson in best actor and Keira Knightly over Cate Blanchett in Best Actress, but I can’t quibble too much.

This year I’m going to do Head picks and Heart picks. The Head picks are those who I think will win. The Heart picks are those I would vote for if I had the ballot. That does not mean that they should win. It just means that they are the performances that most resonate with me.

Best Picture

No Country for Old Men–Head Pick
Juno
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
Atonement–Heart Pick

Analysis–Atonement has no chance of winning, in my opinion. The absence of a best director nod is a historical knock-out punch. However, it is the movie that most resonated with me out of this group. I think No Country will win although it is my least favorite of the five. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset here with Juno or Clayton sneaking in. But I think this year the onslaught of major prizes is the predictor here. It can sometimes be a bad thing to claim front-runner status too early but it should endure the requisite backlash.

Best Actor

Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood)–Head Pick
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)–Heart Pick
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)

Analysis–After seeing Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Savages I am convinced that he was robbed of a slot taken by Jones or Mortenson. The more I reflect on Mortenson’s nomination, the less I like it. Those who proclaim the greatness of his performance hone in on his willingness to go full frontal in a notorious bath house scene. I can’t help but feel that there is a double standard involved. But I digress. Lewis’ performance was one of the more memorable performances in recent years. And he certainly deserves the award and most likely will win. My only hesitation is that I wonder if I will feel the same way in retrospect. Five years from now will I still laud the performance or view it as a textbook case of over-acting. I know that I will still love Clooney’s performance years from now. And I just like him.

Best Actress

Julie Christie, (Away from Her)–Head Pick
Marion Cotillard, (La Vie en Rose)
Ellen Page (Juno)
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Laura Linney (The Savages)–Heart Pick

Analysis–This is a three horse race between Christie, Cotillard and Page. I think Christie will win and deservedly so. Her performance is the most memorable of the year as she brought life and heartbreak to a woman slowly fading away due to Alzheimer’s. I don’t think the Academy will go in a foreign direction and Page is still a largely comic performance. Christie’s is a career capping performance. With that said, the most enjoyable performance for me was Linney. She combined with Phillip Seymour Hoffman to produce one of the finest on-screen brother/sister duos in cinematic history. She has no shot of winning and probably shouldn’t against Christie. But all in all, it’s my favorite of the bunch.

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem, (No Country for Old Men)–Head and Heart Pick
Casey Affleck, (Jesse James)
Hal Holbrook, (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson, (Michael Clayton)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, (Charlie Wilson’s War)

Analysis–I view this as the strongest list of nominees of the night but also the one with the most clear-cut choice. No one became their character more than Bardem and he has secured a place as one of the scariest villain’s of all time. If there is an upset here it’ll be a career award for Hal Holbrook.

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett, (I’m Not There)
Ruby Dee, (American Gangster)–Head Pick
Amy Ryan, (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)–Heart Pick
Saoirse Ronan, (Atonement)

Analysis–This category is completely up for grabs with all but Ronan in good position to win. The smart money has been on Blanchett. However, the movie is a hated one and Dee is the buzz candidate. I think this is the surprise of the night. However, if I was voting, Swinton’s amoral character would take the nod.

Director

Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)–Head Pick
Julian Schnabel, (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)–Heart Pick
Paul Thomas Anderson, (There Will Be Blood)
Tony Gilroy, (Michael Clayton)
Jason Reitman, (Juno)

Analysis–I think it will be the Coen’s night and, again, deservedly so. They faithfully adapted a master work of fiction and were able to capture the bleakness of McCarthy’s work. But, for me, the best directing performance was Schnabel who was able to put us inside of a man suffering from “locked-in syndrome.” Through Schnabel’s vision we are able to see the extent of one who is locked inside his own mind.

Original Screenplay

Diablo Cody wins for Juno

Adapted Screenplay

Give another one to the Coen’s although I’m pulling for PT Anderson.

No End in Sight wins documentary