As you know I am a huge Academy Award buff. I have seen every best picture and best actor winner and see all the major nominees each year. One of my favorite parts of the season is predicting who the nominees will be.
There is more to the process than just picking the most popular or most critically acclaimed films. There is understanding and charting the buzz and backlash, of following the other awards and knowing which ones mean the most (guilds are much more important than the globes, for instance) and trying to determine what the surprises are. With that said here are my picks:
Best Picture–This is, by far, the most interesting category. In a desperate bid to reclaim ratings glory and to ensure that some blockbusters are nominated they expanded the field this year to 10 nominees. It was unnecessary in retrospect because Avatar is a shoo-in for a nom and the front-runner at this point to win. What makes this a bit more interesting is that the first five this year are all locks. There would be no doubt whatsoever who the field would be in any other year.
Avatar
Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Up In The Air
Precious
Up
An Education
A Serious Man
Blind Side
Invictus
Analysis–As I mentioned the first 5 are certain. I also believe that Up and An Education are in as well. There are a number of movies vying for the last three slots. I believe that the box office and love for Sandra Bullock pushes Blind Side into the final field. Other movies that could sneak in include Star Trek, District 9 and The Hangover.
Best Actor
George Clooney for Up In the Air
Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman for Invictus
Colin Firth for A Serious Man
Jeremy Renner for Hurt Locker
Analysis–I believe that this field is locked but I would love to see Viggo Mortenson recognized.
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock for Blind Side
Meryl Streep for Julie and Julia
Carey Mulligan for An Education
Emily Blunt for Young Victoria
Gabby Sidibe for Precious
Best Supporting Actor
Woody Harrelson for The Messenger
Christopher Waltz for Inglorious Basterds
Matt Damon for Invictus
Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer for The Last Station
Best Supporting Actress
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air
Mo’Nique for Precious
Julianne Moore for A Single Man
Penelope Cruz for Nine
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow for Hurt Locker
James Cameron for Avatar
Jason Reitman for Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood for Invictus
Quentin Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds