Due to time constraints I can’t do a full breakdown this year but I will post a bit of analysis. One thing is true: whenever you start hearing someone say that a film is a lock is when you really need to start wondering how true that is.

Best Picture

Will Win–Slumdog Millionaire: This is the biggest lock to win Best Picture since Brokeback Mountain. The only problem is that Brokeback did not win. The main difference here is that Slumdog peaked at just the right time whereas Brokeback had been the frontrunner for months and peaked way too early leading to the ubiquitous Oscar backlash.
Could Upset–Anything but Frost/Nixon. The Reader is a captivating tale and has the Weinstein PR machine behind it. My gut is that it peaked too late, however. Benjamin Button could move in here but overall the reception was somewhat reserved. Milk is a fabulous film and would not be just a perceived makeup for Brokeback but could win on its own merits.
Should Win–Slumdog Millionaire. As much as I like each of the other nominees, this is the best picture of the year.

Best Actor
Will Win–This could go either way between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. I’m going to go with Penn for bringing Harvey Milk to life.
Could Upset–I guess there is a scenario where Brad Pitt could sneak in if Penn and Rourke split votes but I don’t see that happening. A better choice would be Frank Langella for actually making Richard Nixon a sympathetic character. That is the perfomance that will be remembered in retrospect.
Should Win–Penn has won before and his role is more about the character than the performance. Rourke should be honored for such a stunning comeback.

Best Actress
Will Win–I’ve heard talk that Meryl Streep is making a tremendous surge to taking home another trophy after a long hiatus. However, this statue must belong to Kate Winslet for her indelible performance of a woman who is complex, layered and mysterious. It is her turn.
Could Upset–If Streep wins it is a huge upset in my book.
Should Win–Winslet

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win–Heath Ledger, although this could be the upset of the night. This statue was practically handed to him over a year ago when he died. The raw emotion of that passing has now subsided and Oscar voters hate being told who to vote for. With that said, he deserves the trophy based upon the merits of his performance. A win here after a huge snub for The Dark Knight is important.
Could Upset–Robert Downey, Jr. turned in an impeccable performance.
Should Win–Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win–I view this as the most wide open contest of the night. In theory the two Doubt performances should cancel each other out. However, who would not love to see an Amy Adams victory? My heart says Tomei wins and removes all doubt about her legitimacy as an Oscar winner but I am afraid that Penelope Cruz wins for her performance in the insipid Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Ugh.

Best Director–Danny Boyle
Best Original Screenplay–Dustin Lance Black
Best Adapted Screenplay–Simon Beaufoy

Best Song–Bruce Springsteen’s omission makes this category absolutely worthless.

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon

Analysis: This are ranked in order of my confidence in their nomination. The first three, in my estimation, are locks (although I have not seen Button yet). Dark Knight is not a lock but I think it gets in, not only because it is worthy but because the Academy needs it to be in. Frost/Nixon is a stellar film and worthy of inclusion but there are 2-3 pics that could sneak in here: Revolutionary Road and The Reader are the two most likely. If this is the year of Kate Winslet, then that could happen. Despite all of the Wall-E talk I don’t think it makes the cut. Same with The Wrestler. That gets Mickey Rourke a nom but not enough to propel the film. And Gran Torino is good but not a best picture. Although it is foolish to ever count out Eastwood.

Best Actor
Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)

Analysis: This is a two horse race at this point between Penn (who was masterful as Milk) and Rourke. More will be known as we follow the arc between nominations and presentation but it is down to these two guys. I feel pretty good about this group but can’t completely count out Leonardo Dicaprio (Revolutionary Road) or Richard Jenkins (The Visitor). I don’t think Colin Farrel’s GG win for In Bruges is enough.

Best Actress
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)

Analysis: Winslet gets two noms this year and hopefully this is the year she finally goes home with a statue. I hope this is Hathaway’s award, however. Streep is always a no-brainer and Jolie has garnered raves for a movie that seemed to be split among critics. Leo is the mystery here. I don’t know much about her or the movie but she seems to be getting a great deal of buzz. And that is the name of the game.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger (Dark Knight)
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)
Robert Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)

Analysis: Ledger and Brolin are locks. Patel benefits by a campaign for support rather than lead. And Downey deserves a nod. I would like to see Tom Cruise garner a nomination for his performance in Tropic as well but I don’t see it happening.

Best Supporting Actress
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicki Christina Barcelona)
Frieda Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire)

Analysis: This category is perennially hard for me to pin down. After Winslet, who should win, it is all a crap shoot. However, I would love to see Rosemary DeWitt be recognized for Rachel.

Best Director
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
Christopher Nolan (Dark Knight)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)

Analysis: I’m going with Eastwood edging out Ron Howard because it is Clint Eastwood and the Academy loves him and Director and Picture seldom line up 5 for 5.

We shall see how I do tomorrow. Any thoughts?

Best Picture

Will Win–Again, I think a case can be made for all of these movies. The best I can do is a process of elimination as none of these truly stand out above the others. The Queen has a shot because of its across the board excellence and its multiple nominations. Little Miss Sunshine has great love from the acting block but it’s lack of a directing nom could be a detriment. Letters From Iwo Jima is making a late surge and it has the Eastwood cachet. Babel is an outstanding film that delivered some of the most intense scenes of the year. But ultimately I think there will finally be a much belated breakthrough for Scorcese and The Departed will be swept along with that tide.
Should Win–Babel is the one movie that has stuck with me after seeing it. The message of fractured communication in the midst of heartache and struggle is compelling.

Best Actor
Will Win–Although there seems to be a lot of sentiment for Peter O’Toole I have to give the nod to Forrest Whitaker for his stirring depiction of Idi Amin. Besides O’Toole just received an honorary award.
Should Win–It’s hard to go against those two luminaries for their performances but no actor sucked me in with a performance this year better than Leonardo DiCaprio. And he did it twice.

Best Actress
Will Win–Although Oscar is famed for its backlash, and Helen Mirren has led from the outset scooping up every award along the way, nothing stands in her way this year.
Should Win–Mirren

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win–It’s a horse race between Arkin and Murphy but I think old school gives Alan Arkin the trophy.
Should Win–It’s Eddie Murphy with a career defining role that should win the prize. A lot of talk has been about how Norbit may hurt his chances. But he shouldn’t be penalized for being Eddie Murphy. He should be awarded for how staggering this departure was.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win–Jennifer Hudson for dominating every scene she was in in Dreamgirls.
Should Win–Hudson.

Director
Will Win-It’s finally Marty‘s year. But Eastwood is looking over his shoulder and could be the spoiler yet again.
Should Win–Martin Scorcese. If there is anyone due, it’s him.

Other Thoughts:
Children of Men should snatch up cinematography. It is the most beautifully shot movie of the year.
Babel will, inexplicably, win editing. It’s a great film but, come on, they couldn’t have trimmed 10 minutes off of it.
I’d love to see Borat win screenplay, but it won’t happen

10. The Wild Bunch (1969) I know I run a major risk of being overly hard on musicals, but I believe that the same general rule applies here as do the rules Oscar puts on comedies: if it is going to be nominated, it has to raise the bar. Hello, Dolly did not raise the bar but effectively put an end to the love affair the Academy had with musicals during the 60s. The Wild Bunch redefined action movies with its use of slow motion and became an ironically touching portrait of growing older.

9. Little Big Man (1970)–If your idea of a great movie-going experience is to choke on saccharine as your emotions are shamelessly manipulated then you will defend the omission of the classic western in favor of the treacly Love Story. But you will be wrong. And love DOES mean you have to say sorry. Sorry for producing this schlock.

8. Blade Runner (1982)–Sure, I love the thought of Dustin Hoffman (Tootsie) in a dress as much as the next guy, but there is no way the dystopian genius of Ridley Scott’s depiction of the near future is outpaced by yet another celebrity trolling for cheap laughs. In light of all the movies that followed that play on this gimmick, there should have been a serious discussion on whether or not Hoffman would be allowed to act again rather than honor it with a best picture nom.

7. Brazil (1985)–Terry Gilliam’s post-apocalyptic satire may well be one of the most beautifully crafted movies of our lifetime. The fact that it can be categorized as science fiction and a comedy shows the deftness of Gilliam’s hand. Instead, the Academy opted for tedium and nominated The Kiss of The Spider Woman. I would say more about this convoluted mess but I struggled making it through.

6. Miller’s Crossing (1990)–The Coen brothers at their all-time best failed to grab a Single nomination. Rather than reward one of the grittiest film noirs of our time, the academy instead opted to reward us with the syrup double feature of Awakenings and Ghost. Any Academy member that opted over those two hour servings of molasses over the complex twist of Miller’s should have their membership revoked. No one makes Miller sit in a corner.

5. The Usual Suspects (1995)–OK, I have a nomination form in front of me. I can vote for one of the defining movies of the 90s that popularized twist endings or a movie about a talking pig. No contest. Give me Babe. Before I get flamed by the Moms of Preschoolers, understand this: Keyser Soze would have roasted Babe for breakfast.

4. Truman Show (1998)–I think the reason this movie failed to be acknowledged was because nobody realized how prescient this movie truly was. In our “reality-tv” culture, Truman is all too indicting. At the time we had no full way of knowing how accurate it was. Therefore, the Academy chose to award Terrance Malick’s return to movie-making with his messy snoozer The Thin Red Line.

3. Almost Famous (2000)–I don’t like to watch movies repeatedly. But if you put Cameron Crowe’s masterful loose autobiography on in front of me, I’ll be glued to the screen. This movie hits on all cylinders. Chocolat does not. This was during the long streak of the Weinstein brothers buying nominations.

2. Memento (2001)–If you have seen this mind-bender then you obviously share my outrage that this movie received no love at award time. If I remind you that it was shut out by the likes of Gosford Park and Moulin Rouge then you will reconsider ever watching movies again.

1. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004)–My favorite movie of the year was overlooked by the underwhelming Ray and the manipulative Finding Neverland. Why?

10. Titanic over L.A. Confidential (1997)–Honestly, I got caught up in the hoopla just like everybody else. The movie that could have sank, instead floated on an Oscar tidal wave. But it was the adaptation of James Ellroy’s novel that stands the test of time. It is deeply reminiscent of the hard-boiled detective stories of yesteryear, full of layers of intrigue and mystery.

9. Dances With Wolves over Goodfellas (1990)–The Academy’s dismissal of Scorcese’s work has been going on for almost three full decades. There is no more glaring oversight than this one. Sure, this was the first of Costner’s overblown ego projects and we didn’t fully realize where that would end up. But come on. If you have both DVD’s in your hands right now, which one are you putting in? I thought so.

8. Lawrence of Arabia over To Kill A Mockingbird (1962)–Don’t get me wrong, Lawrence is a great film but it has none of the epochal virtue of Mockingbird. The adaptation of Harper Lee’s novel signified the beginning of a seismic shift in American culture.

7. Gladiator over Traffic (2000)–Sure, Crowe’s Maximus brings out the inner warrior in each of us. I get that. But Soderburgh weaves a complicated and intricate web of seemingly unrelated stories on the drug war in America that sends the viewer reeling. Seeking dialogue over resolution this is one of the important films of the 21st century. Oscar missed that.

6. Going My Way over Double Indemnity (1944)–Bing Crosby as a priest? No thanks. The definitive film noir? Yes, please.

5. Driving Miss Daisy over every other nominated picture (1989) This year brought us the following nominees: Born on the Fourth of July, Dead Poets Society, Field of Dreams and My Left Foot. There is no defense or excuse for this bone-headed of a pick. It’s the academy’s version of the BCS.

4. All About Eve over Sunset Boulevard (1950)–Both movies explore the theme of aging stars. Bette Davis and, especially, Anne Baxter are phenomenal in Eve. However, it is Gloria Swanson’s frightening, yet moving, portrayal of Norma Desmond that has become a cinematic touchstone.

3. A Beautiful Mind over Lord of the Rings (2001)–How many people did Russell Crowe have to threaten to throw a telephone at to score this upset? Peter Jackson created one of the most amazing visual feasts in cinematic history with a story that many thought was unfilmable. Sure, he was rewarded for the first entry, but he lost here to a joke of a movie.

2. How Green Was My Valley over Citizen Kane (1941)–Sure, Orson Welles had ticked off too many powerful people in the making of this film. And, granted, the Academy made many missteps during the World War 2 years. But this is one of the greatest crimes in its history. I’m not usually given to the build-up of hype over Kane and its overblown melodrama. But it is one of the greatest films ever made. How Green Was My Valley was not.

1. Forrest Gump over The Shawshank Redemption (1994)–Gump, and Hank’s cloying portrayal, make me want to hurl myself under a bus. The fact that this insufferable 2 and a half hour mess of a film beat out one of the true great depictions of redemption ever captured on celluloid is the greatest misstep in the Academy’s history. Treacle, I have met thee, and thy name is Forrest Gump.

Your thoughts or suggestions?

Best Picture–There are three absolute locks in this category. One almost lock. And one movie with a head of steam coming into the announcement.
Babel–Lock
Dreamgirls–Lock
The Departed–Lock
The Queen–Almost a lock
Little Miss Sunshine–Gaining ground fast and at this point is a dark horse to win it all.

Analysis–The Queen seems to have slowed a bit, although it is a fantastic film and I think it still will make it through. People are beginning to acknowledge Sunshine for being one of the best movies of the year and I think it gets through. There are still a few movies that are hanging around that could pull a stunner. They are:
–Children of Men: The problem with this film is that it began to get the rave reviews and the push too late in the game. If the nominations were a month from now, it’s chances would be better.
–United 93: Critics love it, naming it the best picture in 9 different circles. But, divorced from the emotions of those events, it’s not a great film.
–Letters from Iwo Jima: The Academy loves Clint Eastwood. But this time I think he has to settle for just a Director nod.

Best Actor–This is shaping up to be a great year for African American actors. As it shapes up right now, they could pull out three of the four trophies this year. And after the two locks this field gets rather shaky. Here is my best guess:
Forest Whitaker in Last King of Scotland–Lock
Will Smith in Pursuit of Happyness–Lock
Peter O’Toole in Venus–Oft nominated but never a winner. And he won’t win this year. But look for him to haul in #8.
Leonardo DiCaprio–Two stellar performances. The question is which movie garners the nom. I think it will be for Blood Diamond since his role in The Departed is being pushed for supporting. If so, I think Leo will be twice rewarded this year.
Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat–Golden Globe win proves that this performance is being taken seriously. It’s that good.
Note–Look for Ryan Gosling to sneak in here if Leo splits his vote.

Best Actress–For the first time in years this category has more weight than the Actor field.
Helen Mirren in The Queen–Lock. She has won EVERY award for her incredible performance. Time to start dreading the Oscar backlash.
Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada–Lock, but isn’t she always?
Judi Dench in Notes On a Scandal–Lock, but isn’t she always?
Kate Winslet in Little Children–Her fifth! nomination. The next, or current, Meryl Streep.
Penelope Cruz in Volver–I can’t believe I’m writing this.

Supporting Actor–Great performances, with one clear front-runner. And that is:
Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls–Eddie was a revelation in this film. Tremendous.
Djimon Honsou in Blood Diamond–This is one of my favorite performances of the year. His love for his son will preach.
Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine–A career topping performance.
Jackie Earl Haley in Little Children–Kelly Leak is back.
Brad Pitt in Babel–I’m going for a long shot here. It’s Pitt’s time knocking out contenders like Nicholson and Wahlberg.

Supporting Actress–I’m reaching here because I haven’t seen as many films with legitimate contenders in this field. I’ll start with what I think should happen:
Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls–WOW. This is a lock. And with Whitaker and Murphy this is three African American frontrunners. A first.
Abigail Breslin in Little Miss Sunshine–Give her the nod. To upstage Steve Carrell, Greg Kinnear and Toni Collette takes some chops.
Cate Blanchett in Notes On a Scandal
Adriana Barraza or Rinko Kikuchi in Babel–But not both.
Emma Thompson in Stranger Than Fiction–I’m afraid this becomes a rubber stamp here rather than giving it to who truly earned a nom: Emily Blunt in The Devil Wears Prada

Best Director–I am hoping against hope that Eastwood in not nominated here, because it is LONG past time that Scorcese is honored. He is the greatest living director to have not won. He’s way past due.
Martin Scorcese for The Departed
Bill Condon for Dreamgirls
Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel
Clint Eastwood for Letters From Iwo Jima
Steven Frears for The Queen
Note: We could see the Academy acknowledge United 93 here with a nod for Paul Greengrass

OK, that’s it. I felt more confident in my predictions last year but it will be interesting to see. I am now heading to some other prediction sites to see how I compare to the “experts.”
Any thoughts?

Update

I only got 25 out of 30. The only one I got completely was Best Actress. Kinda disappointing. But I did name all the ones in my potential spoilers so that means no true shocks except Dreamgirls getting shut out of best picture. When I saw that Condon was not nominated for Director I sensed it was coming. But I thought it was a lock. I must make a mental note to myself: never underestimate the Academy’s love for Clint Eastwood.
It’s a wide open field. Should be interesting.

That’s arguable. It’s definitely fun.

But there is no debate that Samuel L. Jackson is the coolest man on the planet.  I’m smelling Oscar.

In the coming weeks I will be doing a series on the theological implications of Snakes on a Plane.

We will look at the eschatological and soteriological aspects of the film.  Join in on the discussion.

Anybody seen it? Thoughts?

“I would agree that Brokeback is a lock to win. However, Oscar is
notorious for its ba

I wrote that almost two months ago. I just wish I had been bold enough to stick with that prediction last week. Instead, this is what I said:

“I am holding out hopes that Crash plays the Shakespeare in Love role to Brokeback’s Schindler’s List (sic). Five years from now, when we are out from under the news-worthiness of Brokeback there will be no debate that Crash is the superior film. I saw it months ago and it still resonates with me. This could be the biggest shocker of the night.”

Instead I hedged my bets and went against my gut. But I can truly say that Oscar got it right. Crash is hands down the pic of the year.

The only disappointment for me was Dolly Parton losing. That was a crime.

The only one I missed was Best Supporting Actress. Not a bad night.

Jon Stewart stumbled a little at the beginning but quickly caught his stride. His brand of intelligent and incisive humor was pitch-perfect in an otherwise paint-by-numbers night.

Best Actor
Will Win–Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote.
Should Win–This vote might change when I get to see Capote. But for now, my favorite performance of the year is Terrence Howard’s searing portrayal in Hustle and Flow.