Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon

Analysis: This are ranked in order of my confidence in their nomination. The first three, in my estimation, are locks (although I have not seen Button yet). Dark Knight is not a lock but I think it gets in, not only because it is worthy but because the Academy needs it to be in. Frost/Nixon is a stellar film and worthy of inclusion but there are 2-3 pics that could sneak in here: Revolutionary Road and The Reader are the two most likely. If this is the year of Kate Winslet, then that could happen. Despite all of the Wall-E talk I don’t think it makes the cut. Same with The Wrestler. That gets Mickey Rourke a nom but not enough to propel the film. And Gran Torino is good but not a best picture. Although it is foolish to ever count out Eastwood.

Best Actor
Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)

Analysis: This is a two horse race at this point between Penn (who was masterful as Milk) and Rourke. More will be known as we follow the arc between nominations and presentation but it is down to these two guys. I feel pretty good about this group but can’t completely count out Leonardo Dicaprio (Revolutionary Road) or Richard Jenkins (The Visitor). I don’t think Colin Farrel’s GG win for In Bruges is enough.

Best Actress
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)

Analysis: Winslet gets two noms this year and hopefully this is the year she finally goes home with a statue. I hope this is Hathaway’s award, however. Streep is always a no-brainer and Jolie has garnered raves for a movie that seemed to be split among critics. Leo is the mystery here. I don’t know much about her or the movie but she seems to be getting a great deal of buzz. And that is the name of the game.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger (Dark Knight)
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)
Robert Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)

Analysis: Ledger and Brolin are locks. Patel benefits by a campaign for support rather than lead. And Downey deserves a nod. I would like to see Tom Cruise garner a nomination for his performance in Tropic as well but I don’t see it happening.

Best Supporting Actress
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicki Christina Barcelona)
Frieda Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire)

Analysis: This category is perennially hard for me to pin down. After Winslet, who should win, it is all a crap shoot. However, I would love to see Rosemary DeWitt be recognized for Rachel.

Best Director
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
Christopher Nolan (Dark Knight)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)

Analysis: I’m going with Eastwood edging out Ron Howard because it is Clint Eastwood and the Academy loves him and Director and Picture seldom line up 5 for 5.

We shall see how I do tomorrow. Any thoughts?